The challenges presented by Russian hybrid war and preparations for the future of war are not insurmountable. Russia is now involved in carrying out hybrid warfare against pro-Western authorities in Montenegro, Macedonia, and Kosovo while its support for Bosnia’s Serb separatists poses a threat to state structures. I would argue that something much bigger is at stake. Russia’s engagement in Libya, by contrast, has been primarily through its private military companies (PMCs), which are also operating in Syria. It focuses on the need to address all of the key aspects of this competition, including Russia’s “gray area,” hybrid warfare, and multi-domain/joint combined-domain operations. Russia sees hybrid wars as the main line of future military development, rather than a temporary phenomenon. It covers the entire “competition space,” including subversive, economic, information, and diplomatic means, as well as the use of military forces extending above the upper threshold of the “gray zone” concept that more accurately captures the Chinese approach to war. Download the Report Anthony H. Cordesman with the assistance of Grace Hwang This chronology explores the full range of Russian competition with the United States. The Kremlin does not shy away from sending and using units from its conventional military forces just because it has defined the war as hybrid. The 2018 US National Defense Strategy gives primacy to deterring major conventional great power wars. Russian Air Force aircraft in Syria constitute its most important means of influencing that conflict, although it has also deployed Russian Army Military Police and special forces (SPETSNAZ) troops as well. --Modern War Institute Russia also seeks to avoid such wars even as it designs a different way of waging war to achieve its revisionist objectives. Fridman explains how Russia and the West got into such an insane blame-game in this fascinating volume, which is about the idea of hybrid warfare rather than its practice." The Kremlin’s ongoing adaptations include efforts to: The United States must revise its strategy for confronting the Russian threat and re-examine the tools and resources it will need to support that strategy in light of a more accurate understanding of the Russian concept of hybrid wars. It refers to the use of unconventional methods as part of a multi-domain warfighting approach. Conduct society-wide information campaigns to improve “patriotic consciousness,” which the Kremlin assesses is essential in hybrid war. Before the Committee on Armed Services United States House of Representatives March 22, 2017 s used today in reference to Russia, “hybrid warfare” refers to Moscow’s use of a broad range of subversive instruments, many of which are nonmilitary, to further Russian national interests. The ultimate objective of Russian hybrid warfare is not the defeat but the destabilization of neighboring countries. The Russian military defines a “hybrid war” as a strategic-level effort to shape the governance and geostrategic orientation of a target state in which all actions, up to and including the use of conventional military forces in regional conflicts, are subordinate to an information campaign. The Kremlin has established a continuum between and among military and non-military means to conduct unified campaigns – hybrid wars - to achieve its strategic objectives. Since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014, there has been a lot of discussion in Western policy circles on how to deal with Moscow’s hybrid warfare tactics. In essence, “hybrid warfare” is a way to add the necessary masses on the ground, but exactly as a function of the RMA and the new applications of psychological warfare. This kind of hybrid warfare gave Putin just enough plausible deniability about what was clearly happening — Russia seizing territory that belonged to another nation. A nonlinear war is fought when a state employs conventional and irregular military forces in conjunction with psychological, economic, political, and cyber assaults. Without further ado, let’s look are some of the major takeaways from the report. The Kremlin is actively refining and utilizing its theory of hybrid war in Europe and around the world. Improve the conventional expeditionary capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces to enhance their capability to deploy abroad in support of hybrid wars. Return to the Military Learning & Future of War Homepage. This paper is part of ISW's Military Learning & The Future of War series. The Russian Armed Forces openly discuss several ongoing conflicts as hybrid wars. According to widespread belief in the United States and Europe, Vladimir Putin’s Russia has unleashed “hybrid war” against the West. Centralize all potential Russian decision-making bodies—civilian, military, media, and economic—to coordinate whole-of-government efforts. Its perception of being at war or in a permanent state of conflict with the US and its allies were furthered by the 2014 Maidan uprising in Ukraine. �������{���R�l%���G���|(;�P�K\u����Dk�I�3�9/ �q��_�Σ���>�ҋ�I�_��T����M��==.--�&�������Գ^�r�3�����Q����;g�-�Ca�����)��.y� endstream endobj 71 0 obj <>>>/EncryptMetadata false/Filter/Standard/Length 128/O(������n`q�UKz�2k˗��B'r$߼)/P -1324/R 4/StmF/StdCF/StrF/StdCF/U(�ً�Ž��p�. Many policymakers and analysts have expressed concerns about Russian use of "hybrid warfare," especially against Estonia and Latvia, which have significant Russian-speaking populations. By Matthijs Olde MSc. The Kremlin’s undertakings are aimed at drawing Serbia away from Western institutions, however, the Serbs are its only ally in the region. Mr. Putin’s hybrid warfare approach includes disinformation campaigns, political pressure, online operations and other steps short of military conflict but central to … h�bbd``b`� In 2013, General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of the General Staff, published an article in a relatively obscure Russian military policy journal. The U.S discussion of hybrid war overly focuses on the means short of conventional forces and conflict that the Russians have most famously used. Russia’s hybrid warfare Russian President Vladimir Putin and President Trump shake hands during a bilateral meeting at the Group of 20 leaders summit in … Western defense and political specialists analyzing Russian responses to the crisis have been quick to confirm that Hybrid Warfare is the Kremlin's main strategy in the twenty-first century. Just think here, by contrast, of the USSR victory against the Third Reich, which has always been a model for the modern thinking of the Soviet Union and later of Russia. 1400 16th Street NW, Suite 515 Washington, DC 20036. But one thing that we have seen on a higher level of things, is that this Russian hybrid warfare strategy, it's not a one-sided game, and we've seen the West and pro-Western countries like Ukraine, really start to not only understand what Russia is doing, but even develop strategies of their own, to counter Russia's hybrid warfare strategy. mussen described Russian tactics as hybrid warfare, which he defined as a combination of military action, covert operations and an aggressive program of disinformation. America’s current strategy for responding to the Russian threat is based on a misunderstanding of the Russian approach to war and exposes the United States and its allies to a high risk of strategic defeats. I have written extensively about hybrid warfare as a reflexive control, as an example of the long-running asymmetrical duel between Russia and the West. Click here to go to the series homepage. Hence, a hybrid society fought a hybrid war. Russian hybrid war efforts in Belarus include sending three battalion tactical groups from Russian Airborne Forces divisions to exercise there, along with Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers. In what came to be called the Gerasimov Doctrine, he described “new-generation” warfare —… Current hybrid warfare efforts from Russia, China, and to a lesser degree by increasingly rogue states such as Turkey and Iran, are a formidable threat to civil order in Europe. And it must accept that US and NATO conventional military forces must play an essential role in any counter-hybrid war strategy. Russian military theorists write extensively and openly on general strategies and doctrine for offensive hybrid wars, and additionally discuss the development of individual hybrid means. Hybrid warfare is back on the agenda. European operators are more primed by the logic of globalization and the creation of a unified fellowship than by the autonomous political doxa of s… Subordinate kinetic operations to information operations—which the Kremlin assesses is the ongoing foundational change in the character of war—in planning processes and execution. Through the 1990s and into Putinism, Russia either failed to institutionalize or actively deinstitutionalized — however you choose to define it. Russian Hybrid Warfare America’s current strategy for responding to the Russian threat is based on a misunderstanding of the Russian approach to war and exposes the United States and its allies to a high risk of strategic defeats. Focusing on Russia’s new style of hybrid warfare alone is a misguided interpretation of how the Kremlin wields power. Russia considers hybrid warfare a form of conflict which includes strategic uses of economic, diplomatic, and influence operations, along with the … Hybrid warfare is an emerging, but ill-defined notion in conflict studies. _ 6. The concept covers all forms of assault short of war itself: cyberattacks, targeted propaganda, “little green men” (Russian “volunteers” appearing in Ukraine without insignia), aid to fringe opposition parties, and military threats. The United States must also recognize that deterring major conventional and nuclear war with Russia is not a sufficient objective to preserve US interests in the face of Russian hybrid war efforts. The Russian military is therefore adapting to improve its capabilities to conduct hybrid wars. The Kremlin further asserts that Russia should shape its military and national security tools to optimize for hybrid wars not only because they are increasingly common, but also because they are now more practical and effective than traditional conventional warfare. The Russian hybrid warfare toolkit has more to offer, including aggressive activities or even inflicting physical harm. Military Balance . The Russians define hybrid war precisely and coherently as a type of war, rather than a set of means to conduct state policy. Linear conflicts are defined by a sequential progression of a planned strategy by opposing sides, whereas nonlinear conflict is the simultaneous deployment of multiple, complementary military and non-military warfare tactics. The Kremlin adjusts the kinds of forces it commits to hybrid conflicts according to its assessment of the conflict’s requirements. It uses a blend of means and instruments, including conventional military forces. If the US continues to focus on deterring the kind of war Russia does not intend to fight while underestimating the role military force can and must play in preventing Moscow from accomplishing its aims through hybrid war, then the US will likely suffer serious strategic defeats even as its defense strategy technically succeeds. Russian hybrid wars include the use of significant conventional forces and conflict. The 2015 edition of . %PDF-1.6 %���� The Russian military maintains theoretical space for the idea of a traditional conventional war and does not assert that all conflicts are now inherently hybrid. endstream endobj startxref 0 %%EOF 90 0 obj <>stream MOSCOW — The chief of Russia’s armed forces endorsed on Saturday the kind of tactics used by his country to intervene abroad, repeating a philosophy of so-called hybrid war … "We understand when it comes to the Russian vaccine, it is Russia's hybrid weapon against Ukraine," he told the Den (Day) newspaper in an interview.. Read also Ukraine to get 16 mln doses of vaccine via COVAX, official says (Video) According to the minister, the … The US must avoid imposing its own conceptual boundaries on the Russian threat—particularly regarding the Russian theory of hybrid war. The Kremlin is optimizing for its expectations of the future of war, not ours, and the West must fully understand the Russian threat to successfully confront the Kremlin. �Z����p �b``$���8�@� ; Russian hybrid warfare in Ukraine People cast their ballots at a polling station during rebel elections in Donetsk, Ukraine, Sunday, Nov. 11, 2018. Russia uses hybrid warfare by applying military force subversively to further its political goals by undermining a nation’s territorial integrity, political cohesion, and economy. The United States should take several actions to support this revision of its strategy and approach to Russia. Ukrainian Deputy Foreign Minister Vasyl Bodnar says the Russian Federation used to seek control over Ukraine by waging hybrid warfare. In 2013, General Valery Gerasimov, chief of Russia’s Armed Forces, publicly unveiled a fresh idea. "The West and Russia both claim hybrid warfare is an approach used by the other side. The Kremlin considers conflicts including Belarus, Ukraine, Syria, Libya, and Venezuela to be hybrid wars. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba says the Russian vaccine against COVID-19 is part of hybrid warfare against Ukraine. The Kremlin is even now waging a hybrid war against the United States. The Kremlin believes it must adapt to win this struggle, profoundly shaping Russian military development and assessments of the future of war. Moscow has accused Washington of conducting hybrid warfare against Russia during the colour revolutions. Reflexive control refers to a Soviet war stratagemwhich seeks to manipulate and utilize the mind of the adversary in order to create or expose vulnerabilities. The Kremlin assesses that hybrid wars already dominate 21st century conflict and will continue to do so. The Russian conception of hybrid war is much more expansive. provides a very compre-hensive definition of the latest manifestation of hybrid warfare… It instead argues that conventional war is a legacy type of conflict that is increasingly unlikely in the 21st century due to technological changes and strategic power balances. He says Russia's hybrid war against Ukraine is a reality in which Ukrainians have been living for long. Read the latest report in ISW's Military Learning & The Future of War Series. $_��8qH0 �f 1� 70 0 obj <> endobj 78 0 obj <>/Encrypt 71 0 R/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<026B3944E93E7D977796609FE61336F4><7FBC62922F5D4EE893073CC0BE6AFFE8>]/Index[70 21]/Info 69 0 R/Length 60/Prev 227090/Root 72 0 R/Size 91/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream Russia’s active measures and hybrid warfare strategy in the Cold war and now. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (Download the full report here). Indeed, in the disordered post-Cold War world, hybrid warfare remains an excellent framework for understanding the changing character of war. The West must not throw up its hands at the challenge of confronting an unfamiliar conception of the future of war. Russia's hybrid warfare tactics are sometimes called gray zone tactics because they are deployed in middling conflicts that cannot be considered conventional black-and-white forms of open warfare or routine statecraft. Increase the adaptability and strength of Russian information campaigns to successfully conduct hybrid wars over many years. Improve the Kremlin’s capability to employ PMCs and other supposedly deniable proxy forces. Confusion and disorder ensue when weaponize… �wK+c9�J�7���q}�E���eh�-� �=�^��6C�� The Russian soldiers without insignia (“little green men”) who helped seize Crimea in 2014, and the proxies Russia uses in eastern Ukraine, are most often the focus of Western assessments about how to respond to Russian hybrid war. Adapt traditional military theories and doctrine to enable the Russian military to conduct hybrid wars as a core mission. Russian hybrid wars include the use of significant conventional forces and conflict. But Russia includes significant conventional conflict in its conception and execution of hybrid war. 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